At present, there is no effective turning point in steel prices. Pre-holiday spot and steel mill order prices will be cautiously optimistic. This year's Spring Festival, whether it is a steel mill or a steel trader, there is not much financial pressure and order gap, and will not form a sharp price cut.
Different from this more optimistic view, the sales manager of a steel trade company in Anyang told us that the current price will definitely not choose the winter storage. It has been waiting for a decline. Although it is currently steadily oscillating, it still has hope for future declines. If you really can't move, you can only give up the winter storage.
This year, winter steel traders are generally cautious. Although the Lunar New Year time is earlier than the previous year, the start of the winter storage this year has been delayed by 1-2 weeks compared with previous years. This shows that traders are very cautious about the market outlook and have a low willingness to take the initiative.
What are the reasons why traders are cautious about winter storage this year. The analysts of this website believe that there are the following main points: First, in 2017, the traders actively participated in the winter storage, but they suffered a sharp price drop at the beginning of the following year, which caused the winter savers to suffer heavy losses. The loss experience is still in sight, so this year the performance was extremely cautious; At present, the domestic economic challenges are numerous and the international trade relationship is complex and changeable. As a result, traders have insufficient confidence in steel demand, especially the current steel price is high. If the price is winter storage, the profit in the spring season is difficult to guarantee.
From a customary point of view, thread stocks usually accumulate after the Spring Festival, because the overall performance of the steel industry is good, and the lower inventory of steel mills, the investment in downstream infrastructure increases, will support the price; delay the reflection of winter storage Traders' cautious sentiment, but if the steel price margin opens, the mood will be fixed.
So, will the market continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival? How will the market trend after the Spring Festival develop? This network analyst believes that the Spring Festival will continue to maintain a volatile trend, but not too pessimistic after the Spring Festival. Before the Spring Festival, some winter storage demand began to be released. The speed of the accumulated warehouse depends on the game between the traders and the steel mills. The current social and steel mill thread stocks are at a low level, the steel mills are quite good at the bottom, and the traders are in the winter storage of 2017. The loss is vivid and the willingness to accept the goods is not strong, so the winter storage of the spot market will show a lower speed than the previous years before the holiday.
After the Spring Festival, the demand in the first half of the year need not be too pessimistic. From the new construction data of the real estate, the construction data of the construction machinery, and the actual understanding, the demand resilience is sufficient, and the high probability will remain in the third and fourth quarters of 2018. If the post-holiday is still a state of low inventory compared to the same period of the year, then there will be a rising probability after the spring.
