On January 4th, Premier Li Keqiang successively inspected the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the Inclusive Finance Department of the Construction Bank, emphasizing the need to increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustments, further adopting measures for tax reduction and fee reduction, and applying comprehensive reduction and directional decline. Quasi-tools to support private enterprises and small and micro enterprises financing. On the same day, the People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive reduction in the deposit reserve ratio and lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, that is, 0.5 percentage points on January 15 and January 25. On January 9, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting and decided to introduce a number of inclusive tax cuts for small and micro enterprises.
A series of favorable policies have been introduced to make Wang Shiliang, the general manager of Southwest Futures Beijing, call: “Policy gives ‘mad’!” He stressed that “the RRR is reduced by 1%, which is not in history.”
However, he admits that such a large policy effort may take some time to be truly implemented. After all, how to rebound is also a rebound in the "bear market", and the three-year "bull market" is over. In 2015, the steel industry gave birth to hopes in the darkest moments. The steel products represented by the coiled plate ushered in the Jedi counterattack in December of the same year, with a rebound rate of 300 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton. In 2016, the steel industry was thoroughly Realizing self-salvation, in which the profitability of hot rolled coils increased from the gross profit at the beginning of the year to the high level of 500 yuan/ton at the end of the year; from 2017 to 2018, the steel industry entered the golden age, rebar and coil. Both the profit per ton of steel and steel broke through the thousand-yuan mark, and the profit of construction steel reached a record high of 1,800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Wang Shiliang said: "In the three-year 'bull market', the steel industry from the brink of bankruptcy to the resurgence of the fire, is undoubtedly the result of the simultaneous efforts of fiscal policy and monetary policy. How to look at the steel market in 2019, but also from these two aspects ""
Supply and demand gradually balance
The Central Economic Work Conference held recently pointed out that it is necessary to see that the economic operation is stable and volatile, the external environment is complicated and severe, and the economy is facing downward pressure.
Combined with the central government's downward adjustment of the economic trend, Qiao Zhongmin, executive vice president of the Beijing Metal Materials Association, said: "In 2019, the word 'stable' was placed in a very obvious position. The probability of a rebound in infrastructure investment is high, with a growth rate of 6% to 7%. The fiscal policy will be more active, no longer lifting leverage; monetary policy will be more relaxed; supply and demand remain unbalanced, and profits and prices will be in a reasonable range."
